SOME computer models for Cyclone Alfred now expect the weather system to move towards the Katherine region at the base of the Top End.
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Although the cyclone, which is already weak, would have by then been downgraded to a tropical low, big amounts of rain would be dumped across an already saturated region.
The Bureau of Meteorology models continue to see TC Alfred spiralling around the base of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Official warnings for the category one system remain for the Port Roper (NT) to Mornington Island (Qld) including Groote Eylandt.
Some other weather outlets have predicted the cyclone will move west later in the week, after it becomes a tropical low, just below Katherine.
A bureau spokeswoman said the cyclone itself would only impact on communities where it crosses the coast.
“At this stage, we are forecasting that the cyclone will weaken to a tropical low as it hits the coast, and will bring a return to showers and storms along the base of the Top End (including Katherine) later this week,” the spokeswoman said.
The bureau said sustained winds near the centre of 85 kmh with wind gusts to 120 kmh.
TC Alfred is estimated to be 115 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 200 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula.
It is moving south southeast at six kmh.
”Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves very slowly southeast towards the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border,” the bureau said.
“The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast before weakening into a tropical low by Wednesday and moving towards the west, over the Carpentaria District.
The bureau said gusts to 110 kmh were being experienced at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast.
Gales with gusts to 110 kmh are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.
Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year.