Above average temperatures have continued for Katherine and the Top End this week.
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The run of 35 plus degree days is expected to continue for the next week as the Bureau of Meteorology says the “heart” of the dry season has passed.
Katherine’s maximum temperatures are still tracking two degrees above average each day.
In its latest climate update, the bureau says the exceptional warmth has continued into August across much of northern Australia, particularly in Queensland and the Northern Territory where many sites are currently tracking well above average for maximum temperature.
The northern Australia dry season begins in May and continues until the end of September each year.
Apart from the east coast of tropical Queensland, this period sees generally dry conditions across most of northern Australia with many districts observing less than 50 mm, on average, of rainfall during the 5-month period.
Averaged across northern Australia, rainfall during the current dry season is tracking at less than half the long-term average as at the end of July, the bureau said.
“However, the more significant feature during 2017 has been the daytime temperatures. Northern Australia (the area north of 26°S, which is the southern border of the NT) experienced its highest mean daily maximum temperature for May to July since records began in 1910.
“The mean daily maximum temperature in 2017 was 1.93 °C above average for the May to July period (previous record was +1.46 °C in 2002).
“Overnight temperatures have also been warmer than average in many parts, but not as significantly as the daytime temperatures. At Darwin Airport, for example, the overnight minimum has dropped below 20 °C on only 25 nights so far this season—less than half of the dry-season average.”
The Madden–Julian Oscillation has remained weak and indiscernible for August so far. While not unanimous, most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast the MJO signal to strengthen marginally in the coming seven days.
Of these, the majority of models indicate that the MJO will re-develop over the Indian Ocean and track eastwards towards the Maritime Continent.
When the MJO moves over the Indian Ocean at this time of the year, cloudiness and rainfall is typically above average over the Indian Ocean, most of India, parts of South East Asia and the northern Maritime Continent region.
For northern Australia, rainfall is not significantly enhanced or suppressed under these circumstances, however overnight temperatures are typically above average across Queensland and parts of the eastern Northern Territory.