Forecasters not sure about rain on the weekend

HEAT IS ON: The Bureau of Meteorology is not sure about an above or below average wet season but says higher temperatures over the next three months are "likely".
HEAT IS ON: The Bureau of Meteorology is not sure about an above or below average wet season but says higher temperatures over the next three months are "likely".

When is it going to rain, you guess and win!

Katherine’s run of 40 degree days could be broken by some rain either Sunday or Monday.

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is the chance of a thunderstorm in Katherine on Sunday night.

Projected rainfall across the weather websites are only offering small totals of less than 5mm.

The bureau released its next three month rain outlook today saying there was a near equal chance of wetter or drier three months for most of Australia.

Eastern Victoria is likely to have a wetter three months, the bureau says.

The rest of the country has around a 50 per cent chance of above average rainfall.

November is likely to be drier for most of northern WA, with highest chances near the Pilbara and Gascoyne coastlines.

The Pacific Ocean is likely to cool towards La Niña levels over the coming months.

However, the corresponding warm sea surface temperatures that typically develop to the north and northwest of Australia during La Niña events are less likely to develop.

This means that overall, Australia doesn't have increased chances of a wetter season.

The specific rain forecast for Katherine also shows little prediction either way for wetter or drier.

The forecasting model admits the historical accuracy for the forecasts is low.

On the temperature front, the bureau says a warmer three months is likely for northern coastline and parts of southeastern Australia

Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the far north coastline of Australia, southern Victoria and Tasmania for November to January.

November to January nights are likely to be warmer than average for northern and southeastern Australia.

For November, northern Australia, Tasmania and eastern Victoria are likely to have warmer days and nights, while northeast NSW and parts of southern WA are likely to have cooler days and nights.

For Katherine, the bureau says the chances of higher than average temperatures over the next three months is “likely”.