It’s hot and it is going to stay hot, forecasters say.
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But rather than the normal build-up conditions with daily temeperature peaks of 40 degrees, the Bureau of Meteorology is also blaming a strengthening Madden–Julian Oscillation.
But the MJO can influence the arrival of rain in Katherine, the bureau says.
Over the past week the Madden–Julian Oscillation has strengthened over the Australian longitudes, the bureau said today.
“At this time of year, this means the MJO is likely to increase temperatures across the Top End, and generally, tropical northwest Australia,” the bureau said.
The MJO is one possible factor contributing to severe heatwave conditions that are likely to affect the Top End region and the Kimberley District in Western Australia this week.
At this time of year, a strong MJO in Australian longitudes can increase the chance of above normal rainfall over southern Queensland and New South Wales.
For tropical northern Australia, the MJO influence on rainfall is still about a week away.
As the MJO moves east into the western Pacific—as it is forecast to do next week—the chance of rainfall will increase over the Top End and Cape York.
The increased chance of rainfall will likely be welcomed by those in the Gulf of Carpentaria regions of the Northern Territory and Queensland that have not yet had any substantial rainfall following the end of the dry.
Also, all international climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest further cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely.
Seven of the eight models suggest SSTs will cool to typical La Niña values during late 2017, and six maintain these values for long enough to be classified as a La Niña event.
While it is not unprecedented, it is unusual for La Niña to form this late in the year. Historically, La Niña conditions in December have contributed to an early onset of the North Australian monsoon.