Many parts of Australia are likely to experience a warmer than average summer, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s summer outlook for 2017-18, issued today.
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But Dr Andrew Watkins, the bureau’s manager, Long-range Forecasts, said there’s little indication of an extremely wet or dry summer on the way.
Katherine is likely to finish November with a much wetter month than average, 156mm already against an average of 93.3mm.
The bureau is tipping lots of rain will fall in Katherine this weekend.
“We’re not expecting to see a strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average season for most of Australia,” said Dr Watkins.
“December rainfall is likely to be above average, particularly in the southeast,” he said, as the Bureau forecasts a very wet start to December.
“When it comes to temperatures, the regions that are most likely to be warmer than average are in central Australia and the southeast, where warmer daytime and overnight temperatures are likely in December.”
A La Niña ALERT was activated on November21 , meaning that the chance of La Niña forming over summer has increased to at least 70%. This is around three times the normal likelihood.
"In two out of every three La Niñas, we see widespread above average rainfall across the country", Dr Watkins noted.
"But if we have a La Niña this summer, it is likely to be weak and short lived, with less impact than recent events."
The bureau's tropical cyclone outlook suggests a typical cyclone season is likely.
"A typical tropical cyclone season sees 10-13 cyclones in the Australian region, with about 4 crossing the coast" said Dr Watkins.
South of the tropics, bushfire potential remains raised in many areas, including around most southern capital cities.
The Bureau’s rainfall and temperature climate outlooks show the likelihood, as a percentage, of experiencing wetter and warmer than average weather for the upcoming three months.
They are used to inform a range of decision-makers across industries such as agriculture, water, emergency services and energy and resources
The summer (December to February) rainfall outlook, shows no strong swing towards a wetter or drier conditions for most of Australia. Parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne in WA, and coastal regions of southeast Australia, are likely to have a wetter than average summer, while the northern Cape York Peninsula may be drier than average.
December is likely to be wetter than average for southeast Australia, extending up into southwest Queensland.
Summer daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southeast, central and far northern Australia.
Summer nights are likely to be warmer than average for northern, central and southeastern Australia and along the southern WA coastline.