Another weak monsoonal burst of rain is expected over the Top End this weekend.
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Some weather websites are forecasting falls could total 40mm on both Saturday and Sunday in Katherine from the return of the monsoon.
The Bureau of Meteorology said a monsoon trough has been over Australia's northwest (predominantly offshore) since the beginning of January and remains active, but relatively weak.
“Forecast models suggest the trough will remain over waters to Australia's northwest but is not expected to strengthen significantly in the coming week.”
The bureau said international climate models predict the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently over the Indian Ocean, will move into the western Maritime Continent in the coming week.
“The MJO in this region would typically assist in invigorating a pre-existing monsoon trough over northwest Australia, however, the broadscale weather pattern in the region is currently not favourable for this to occur.
“This is primarily due to an out-of-season tropical low which is currently located off the north coast of Borneo.
“This low is drawing in the energy associated with a surge of winds from the South China Sea which might otherwise cross the equator and energise the monsoon trough in the Australian region.
“The presence of tropical lows in the northern Indian Ocean during the austral summer has been a recurring theme during the current Australian wet season, and has played a significant role in the lack of monsoonal activity across northern Australia to date.”