Wet season delay the forecast

The Bureau of Meteorology says the wet season may be delayed.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the wet season may be delayed.

October to December is likely to be drier than average for large parts of Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The bureau is forecasting large parts of the NT will experience a poor start to the wet season.

Southwest WA, central Queensland, eastern SA, Tasmania, Victoria and areas inland of the Great Dividing Range in NSW are also likely to have a drier than average October to December.

October is likely to be drier than average in the NT, Queensland, southwest WA, southeast SA, and the western and central parts of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.

However, the outlook for the eastern seaboard has equal chances of a wetter or drier three months—a pattern fairly typical of El Nino periods.

Graphic: Bureau of Meteorology.

Graphic: Bureau of Meteorology.

Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have been very dry and warm since the start of the year, the bureau said.

This pattern continued during winter.

The October to December outlook indicates current drought areas are unlikely to see significant respite in the coming three months.

Historical outlook accuracy for October to December is moderate to high over most of the country, except for southwestern and interior WA, and parts of southeast SA where accuracy is low to very low.

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.

However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Nino remains possible in 2018.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Nino WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Nino forming in the coming months; double the normal chance.

During El Nino, much of Queensland and the Northern Territory typically experience below-average rainfall in the build-up months of October to December.

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