A weak tropical low is located in the Timor Sea moving away from the Northern Territory with a low (5-20%) chance of reaching tropical cyclone strength however a monsoon trough is developing to the north of Australia.

The trough is in a favourable environment for the formation and development of tropical lows. A tropical low is developing within the trough in the Coral Sea. Current forecasts only have a slight chance of the low entering the Gulf of Carpentaria.

There is some model variation as to which regions of the Top End will see monsoonal conditions and a monsoon onset in the Top End is possible within the first week of January with the northeast Top End being the most likely location.

Meanwhile showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across the majority of the Top End.

With the increase in rainfall and cloud cover, temperatures have returned to close to average for December.

Katherine should see maximum temps of around 36-37 °C with a shower or two and possible storms through the forecast period.

Despite rainfall the three previous days Darwin is still well below its December average

Darwin has recorded 34.6mm to 9am Dec 28. The average for December is 255.9mm

Conditions will remain favourable with a moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms for the next week.

In Southern and Central NT heatwave conditions are forecast to continue for at least the next week, reaching severe to extreme.

Tennant Creek, Yulara and Alice Springs will see temperatures in excess of 40°C for at least the next week.

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