Recent and developing conditions near Australian longitudes favour the formation of a monsoon trough, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Two weak monsoon troughs have already formed over the Top End this wet season but have produced little rainfall.

Rain totals are down by more than a third across the Katherine region, and much more in isolated areas, as the region has been reliant on storm activity.

There has only been a few light falls in Katherine so far this month and the Katherine River is at a wet season low of 0.48 metres.

Tropical waves, other than the Madden–Julian Oscillation, have been a regular feature across the near-equatorial zone to Australia's north in the last fortnight, making environmental conditions favourable for enhanced cloudiness and rainfall.

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"The resulting sustained humidity and build-up of deep cloud has led to a trough, running east-west, to the north of Australia.

"Favourable climate influences are likely to see it evolve into a monsoon trough in the next fortnight.

"If a monsoon trough develops and moves over the Australian mainland, significant rainfall could be expected over parts of northern Australia. An active monsoon trough also significantly increases the likelihood of tropical low and tropical cyclone formation."

Model outlooks suggest the Madden–Julian Oscillation will move into a location that is favourable for enhanced cloudiness and rainfall over the Australian tropics in the next week or two.

Katherine recorded a high temperature of 37 degrees yesterday with forecasters saying it could reach 38 today and stay hot right through to early next week.

The maximum temperature record for Katherine in March is 38.9.

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