But these are the hurdles to jump through first.

1/ A monsoon trough has to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

2/ A tropical low has to form within that trough.

3/ The tropical low develops into a tropical cyclone.

4/ The cyclone, downgraded to a tropical low as it hits land, travels close enough to cause rain in Katherine.

The bureau expects at least three of those things are now "likely" to happen.

This afternoon the chance of cyclone Esther being born is officially rated as moderate, up from low yesterday.

Most weather websites predict the weather system will move south-west from the gulf in a path cutting close to Katherine early next week.

In its latest outlook, the bureau said a monsoon trough is expected to form in the Gulf as a westerly surge develops through the Arafura Sea.

"A tropical low is likely to form within the monsoon trough on Thursday or Friday.

"During the weekend, the tropical low is expected to develop quickly with an increasing risk of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Carpentaria from later Saturday.

"Initial movement of the tropical low will likely be slow and erratic before moving in a general south to southwest direction towards the southern parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria later in the weekend."

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