Katherine’s first rain for 168 days melts away

The Bureau of Meteorology has downgraded our forecast from a 40 per cent chance of rain falling on the weekend, to 10 per cent.

It is has not rained in any quantity in Katherine since April 12, which is why the dry season has its name.

Other weather websites are a little more optimistic thaN the bureau, talking of “clearing showers” on Saturday and the “chance” of between 1-5mm.

The bureau is hedging its bets in the latest official climate outlook released today.

“The chances of a wetter or drier October to December for Australia are roughly equal,” the bureau says.

“While the overall three-monthly signal is neutral, October is likely to be wetter than average for central and eastern mainland Australia, and drier for western WA. This wet signal is likely to be driven by more localised weather events.

“Climate influences from the Indian and Pacific oceans are likely to be competing, with a slightly drying influence in the Indian Ocean likely cancelling out a slightly wetter influence from the Pacific Ocean.”

Temperatures in the Top End are likely to be warmer than average during the build-up, according to the bureau.