Weather experts have finally said the "M" word - monsoon.
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Rain cannot come soon enough for Katherine, and most of Australia, after a disastrous 2019.
Katherine's total rainfall for the year, recorded at the official weather station at Tindal, was just 56 per cent of the average.
The result would be even worse in local areas as the storms which strike Tindal do not always do the same for the town, especially late last year.
Katherine recorded 602mm for the year, against an average of 1074mm.
While the Bureau of Meteorology did warn us the wet season would be delayed, now they are saying the weather conditions which caused that, have gone.
A weak monsoon trough is forming to the north of Australia, the bureau says.
But this first weak trough is unlikely to bring monsoonal conditions to the Top End during the next few days.
It is still the first time the monsoon trough has formed in the Australian region this season.
Drier air pushing into the NT on Friday and Saturday will mean a reduced chance of showers and storms for the Top End, including Darwin, with a better chance of rain from Sunday.
A tropical low may develop north of the Pilbara coast in WA early next week - if low develops north of WA it will draw moisture away from the NT which will further reduce the chance of monsoonal conditions in Darwin.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole which has caused one of Australia's warmest and driest years on record has finally broken down.
The Indian Ocean Dipole measures sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean.
When the index is positive, the pattern of sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean restricts the amount of moisture in the atmosphere over Australia. This typically causes below average rain and above average temperatures in large parts of the country.
The Indian Ocean Dipole adopted a positive pattern in late May and persisted in this phase until late December, reaching a strong peak in October.
While Indian Ocean Dipole events usually dissipate in late spring, the strength of this episode allowed it to persist well into summer. However, the latest weekly index value has dropped to neutral territory for the first time in months.
The bureau's 7-day forecast for Katherine is pretty standard for the time of year while we await the monsoons, "shower or two, possible storm".
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