Shipments to Australia's biggest live cattle market, Indonesia, ramped up significantly in December on the back of lower prices and preparation for Islamic religious festivals in March and April.
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Close to 60,000 head went to Indonesia last month, up 62 per cent on December 2022.
Industry leaders have described it as possibly the busiest December for Indonesian feeder business ever seen.
Numbers to Vietnam were also up by a similar percentage in December, although overall volumes to Vietnam are far smaller.
Ripley Atkinson, Australian livestock and commodities manager for StoneX, said December 2023 was the highest month since June 2021 for all markets.
Total live-ex numbers were 673,630, which was 55,000 head above Meat & Livestock Australia's mid-year forecasts.
Lumpy skin woes
Pastoralists are reporting the scrutiny of minor skin flaws on the back of Lumpy Skin Disease concerns has eased somewhat.
"However, we still have cattle that should be exported not getting on boats for this reason," Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association boss Will Evans said.
"It seems to depend on who the customer is at the moment."
Following Indonesia's agreement to lift its suspension on seven northern Australian quarantine yards, implemented after cases of LSD on cattle exported from those facilities, Australian authorities and exporters last year took the strictest approach possible to rejecting any beast with a skin mark.
That meant big numbers were drafted out and left on stations.
Mr Evans said it was still unsure what markets those animals would end up in. Some were being fattened for Vietnam.
"Once it stops raining, decisions will have to be made," Mr Evans said.
Right now, it's too wet to get cattle out anyway, which means very little action is happening at Darwin Port. January will likely only see three boats leave.
Nutrien is this week quoting $3.10/kilogram for Brahman steers, 280 to 380kg, ex-Darwin and $2.70/kg for heifers. Medium steers are making $2.90.
From Townsville, Vietnam steers are $3/kg. Bull calves to Israel ex-Fremantle are quoted at $3.30.
"Australia being more competitive price-wise has definitely had an effect on demand, plus December figures reflected recovery after the suspension of facilities," Australian Livestock Exporters Council chief executive officer Mark Harvey-Sutton said.
"Government-to-government work around LSD is ongoing and Indonesia is showing more confidence in our systems."
Mr Evans, who has just returned from Indonesia, said feedlots had relatively high numbers now.
"No one is really worried about Brazilian beef. By the time it has landed, it will be price-comparable to Australian live cattle but won't be fresh," he said.
Indian buffalo meat, however, was still a big concern.
It was arriving in massive volumes - more than 100,000 tonnes last year - all imported though the Indonesian government agency, Mr Evans reported.
"The irony is it is the most expensive IBM in Asia but it's always positioned to be just cheaper than Australian product," he said.
On foot and mouth disease, Mr Evans reported Indonesian dairies were now vaccinating every animal and small landholders were getting very good access to vaccines.
LSD was the bigger challenge, with some resistance to vaccinations, he said.
The primary driver for Indo demand in 2024 would be price, he said, with cost of living pressures really biting into household budgets.
