After the NT sweltered through record-breaking November heat, recording daytime temperatures roughly 3.25 degrees Celsius above average, the wetter start to the year has presented a welcome reprieve that is expected to continue.
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Katherine's official weather station at Tindal has recorded 119.8mm in the first month of 2021, 49.2mm less than last year.
But it is important to remember recordings differ vastly across the town. At the Nitmiluk Ranger's Station gauge, roughly 30 kilometres northeast of Katherine, 235.8mm has been recorded in January.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Felicity Gamble says above average rainfall is likely to continue into February and March across most of Australia, including the Top End.
"The 2021 summer so far has been cooler and wetter than usual for much of Australia. Although the potential for summer bushfires and heat waves remains, these cool and wet conditions are likely to continue until at least early autumn," she said.
A tropical low, which began to develop over the Gulf of Carpentaria last week weakened and is no longer being closely monitored, but the La Nina remains active, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall across eastern and northern Australia during summer and early autumn.
"Summer rainfall to date has been mostly above average with three cyclones in the Australian region, and several tropical lows bringing widespread rainfall to much of the country, " senior climatologist Felicity Gamble said.
"An active La Nina and warmer waters to the north and west of Australia have contributed to the recent above average rainfall across parts of the country. But model suggests the La Nina year is likely to break down during autumn with the return to neutral conditions by winter," she said.
"February to April is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia. We also expect average to above average numbers of tropical cyclones and tropical loads for the remainder of the Northern wet season.
"However, the rainfall signal starts to weaken in April, consistent with the expected decay of La Nina.
The Top End's streamflow outlook for January to March suggests near medium or high stream flows are likely at most forecast locations, bringing with it the possibility of increased flooding, Ms Gamble said.
She says overnight temperatures for February to April are very likely to be above average across nearly all of Australia.
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